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Predicting Where The Braves Will Finish In The NL East

Posted by Kris N. on February 8, 2010

SPOILER ALERT: The Mets Suck!

Recently tons of creditable sites released their projections for the 2010 season. Like Bill James, Marcel, and CHONE for example.

I expect great things from Hanson, McLouth, and Wagner. Glaus? Ahhh, well see.

Prediction vs. Projection:

First, might I suggest a very good article.

Predict: To state, tell about, or make known in advance, especially on the basis of special knowledge.

Project: To calculate or estimate based on present data or trends.

Projections are based on past data or trends (see above). Take Marcel, it’s “based on the three year average of the player regressing to the mean and with age factored in.” I take “especially on the basis of special knowledge” to mean “pulled from where the sun don’t shine.” … That’s right, Seattle.

CARIO Version 3:

Phillies – 90.1 – 71.9

Braves – 85.2 – 76.8

Mets – 80.1 – 81.9

Marlins – 72.3 – 89.7

Nationals – 71.3 – 90.7

Note: I well be sufficiently pissed if the Braves miss the playoffs by .6 games.

PECOTA:

Phillies – 88 – 74

Braves – 83 – 79

Marlins – 81 – 81

Mets – 79 – 83

Nationals – 76 – 86

CHONE:

Braves 89 – 73

Phillies – 87 – 75

Mets – 80 – 82

Marlins – 76 – 86

Nationals – 74 – 88

Capitol Avenue Club:

Phillies – 92 – 70

Braves – 87 – 75

Mets – 85 – 77

Nationals – 80 – 82

Marlins – 73 – 89

MLB The Show 09:

Speaking of MLB The Show 09, if you update the rosters and simulate the season, this is what you get:

Braves – 100 – 62

Phillies – 91 – 71

Mets – 80 – 82

Marlins – 67 – 95

Nationals – 61 – 101

What I say:

Well… I’m not too good at predicting stuff. Every week I think I’m going to win the lottery, and every week I fail. And I can not tell you how many times I’ve said, “Oh, the clouds look fine, I don’t need an umbrella, how smart can a weather man be? What with all the training they go through,” only to be rained upon later. But, I’ll give it a shot:

Phillies – 90 – 72

Braves – 89 – 73

Mets – 77 – 85

Marlins – 76 – 86

Nationals – 70 – 92

I don’t really want to go to much into it, now. I’d rather save it for later. But, Braves are good, they will win the wild card, at least. And yes, I really think it will only take 89 wins to win the wild card. The NL has become weaker and the AL, stronger.

So, what are your predictions for the 2010 NL East final?

71.3 90.7
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3 Responses to “Predicting Where The Braves Will Finish In The NL East”

  1. China Grove said

    I don’t want to get into too much detail now, man, but I’ll definitely go further into this before Opening Day when I see how certain guys develop in the spring. (example: Heyward)

    I see it much like you do, except I do believe the Marlins will again be above .500, and the Mets could also improve a bit.

    Phillies to win the division by about 5 games, Braves to get the Wildcard. But I’ll mark this post as temporary and post my real opinion in about six weeks.

  2. Haha I’m telling you, I think Glaus will be a pretty good addition, especially at the price you guys got him at. He’s always had a pretty good bat, and I don’t think you’ll miss LaRoche’s production that much. He just needs to try and get healthy again.

  3. BTW – interesting take on the Phils win projections. I think we’ll see a better year out of Hamels, a worse year out of Happ, and a few more wins due to the arrival of Halladay. I’m going to play it safe and say that we’ll improve by one win.

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