Braves, Errors, and sDcBtHy-M.
Posted by Kris N. on August 18, 2010
This team’s strategy to win is to prevent the other team from scoring, rather than trying to outslug the opponent. The key to preventing runs is to not allow people to reach base, it’s pretty simple, kind of.
The fewer base runners you allow, the fewer runs you’ll give up. If you’re not familiar with the ways a hitter can reach base after time in the batter’s box, let me inform you:
- Hit by Pitch
- Dropped Third Strike
- Catcher’s Interference
- Fielder’s Obstruction
- Reach on Error
(Fielder’s Choice is another way that batter can reach base, but that would imply that a runner was there to begin with, thus irrelevant to this argument.)
There are the 7 ways. If a team prevents all 7 of those events from happening, the opposition will score zero runs. Of course, this is the extreme, but you want to strive for as low number as possible.
The Braves defense is pretty good in these categories against the NL:
|Hits||Ranking||Walks||Ranking||Hit By Pitch||Ranking|
…except for “reach on error.”
The Braves have 90 errors, and that’s 90 extra base runners we don’t need.
I’ve invented a new stat; it’s called “Shitty Defense Coming Back To Haunt You – Metric,” or “sDcBtHy-M.”
sDcBtHy-M: Runs – Earned Runs/Errors
- 2010 Nation League Average: 59.4%
- 2010 Braves: 41.1%
This will tell you how many of the base runners that reach on an error are coming around to score. At first glance I thought the League average was a little high, but if you look at the past few years, you’ll see it isn’t at all:
- 2009 National League Average: 57.2%
- 2008 National League Average: 60.6%
- 2007 National League Average: 59.4%
So the Braves are making errors and the runners aren’t scoring. If fact the Braves mark is better than The Phillies (50.7%), Cardinals (42.6%), Reds (59.5%), Giants (48.9%), Rockies (58.2%), and lightly in line with The Padres (40%).
Here is how the rest of the National League stacks up:
|Rank||National League Team||sDcBtHy-M|
|1||San Diego Padres||40%|
|3||St. Louis Cardinals||42.6%|
|4||San Francisco Giants||48.9%|
|5||Los Angeles Dodgers||49.3%|
|7||New York Mets||53.2%|
Through Monday, August 16th, 2010
I think the reasoning is that A, The Braves make so many errors, thus inflating their numbers. B, The Cardinals, Padres, Giants, and Braves have such strong pitching that runners will end up being stranded. And C, The Cubs suck.
The strand rate of runners reaching on errors going back to 2007 is 40.6%, and The Braves are stranding 59.9% (19.3 points above average). Whether or not it’s due to regress, meaning Atlanta stops stranding runners that reach on an error, I don’t know. Let’s REALLY hope not because with all those errors, they would have to allow about 8 unearned runs for every 10 errors (0.77) to regress to the average. Obviously, that seems a little impossible and hard to accept as true.
From watching the games, you can see that The Braves make a good amount of mental errors, as well have “physical” ones, so the problem is thinking rather than preforming. I don’t know what the Braves record is when they commit an error, but I bet it’s a pretty bad one. (Then again, the teams that make a lot of error generally aren’t that so they’ll lose a lot of games.) Either way, when these runners get on because of errors, they aren’t scoring. They should be, but they aren’t. It’s a testament to the pitching (and luck).
Oh, and The Braves traded for Derrek “My down year has a .751 OPS” Lee, goodnight and may the Braves be with you!