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Game One Predictions (Braves at 32%)

Posted by Kris N. on October 7, 2010

Optimistic Prediction

Derek Lowe:  6.2 IP, 6 hits, 2 runs, 1 BB, 6 Ks. No Decision.

Tim Lincecum 7.1 IP, 5 hits, 2 runs, 2 BB, 8 Ks, 1 HR. No Decision.

Brian McCann hits a 2 run HR. Braves score the winning run off Santiago Casilla. Braves win 3 – 2.

Pessimistic Prediction

Derek Lowe: 5.0 IP 9 hits, 5 runs, 3 BB, 1 K. Loss.

Tim Lincecum 7.0 IP, 2 hits, 0 runs, 1 BB, 8Ks, and 0 HR. Win.

Lowe implodes and Bobby leave him out there to long. Giants win 6 – 0.

Now that’s with no basis.

I ran this game (Lowe vs. Lincecum) through my newly acquired Baseball Simulator and it doesn’t look pretty for Braves fans.

Team W L PCT RS/9 RA/9 Hits/9 Errors/9 LOB/9 exW-L%
Giants 12,374 5,836 .680 5.0 3.5 9.7 0.66 7.8 67%
Braves 5,836 12,374 .320 3.5 5.0 7.5 1.75 6.9 32%

This is a simulation of 18,210 games.

It puts the Braves shot of winning this game at 32% and (obviously) the Giants at 67%. Also, the Braves averaged 1.75 errors per game. MAKING ERRORS  KILLS PLAYOFF RUNS! If any game in this series is like the game where the Giants won without the benefit of a hit, that will just about do it for this team.

I’ll try to do these for every Braves game of the playoffs, let’s just hope there is more games to come. We can see where the Braves are favorites and underdogs, today, they’re an underdog.

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